Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
29 0x293a…136d crypto 75 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+6%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate65%49W / 26L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$9
other 5% +$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +2.7% -7.1% 66% 58% -5.9%
≤30d 75 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 57% -6.2%
≤90d 75 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 57% -6.2%
all 75 +1.3% -8.3% 65% 57% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 57% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 48% -15.2%
15% -25.1% 40% -23.4%
20% -32.5% 20% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses49 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records