Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2944…cf36 crypto 69 markets active 6d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,179 (-23%) realized −$1,179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$501
crypto 23% −$30
other 22% −$654
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.8% -26.6% 43% 36% -44.1%
≤30d 68 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 43% -31.0%
≤90d 68 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 43% -31.0%
all 68 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 43% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 43% -31.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 35% -37.6%
15% -19.3% 31% -43.6%
20% -27.2% 22% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$69 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 31
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage6d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $497 −$416 -84%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $86 −$84 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $255 −$250 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $308 −$305 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $901 +$41 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $21 −$12 -58%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $32 −$29 -90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 −$6 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $108 +$82 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -82%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $174 +$140 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $164 −$2 -1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $42 −$29 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$15 -76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $261 +$44 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $113 +$61 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$28 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $242 +$35 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$42 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$87 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$20 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$9 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$7 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$11 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$5 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $86 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 11¢ $81 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 67¢ $379 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 67¢ $118 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 33¢ $255 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $308 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 96¢ $901 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $31 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL Team Nemesis 4¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 22¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 26¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 28¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 33¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $21 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 51¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records