Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
29 0x2948…788a world 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$560 (+5%) realized +$577 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%66W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$134
14 days+$151
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$1,164
politics 4% −$296
crypto 3% −$208
other 3% −$15
finance 1% +$79
sports 1% −$13
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +40.8% +27.4% 67% 56% +13.6%
≤30d 13 +32.2% +19.6% 69% 54% -10.6%
≤90d 19 +74.3% +57.7% 74% 58% +19.9%
all 113 +44.1% +30.4% 58% 35% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 35% -3.7%
10% +17.9% 27% -12.9%
15% +6.5% 23% -21.3%
20% -3.9% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$108 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized+$577
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses66 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)113 / 125
History coverage628d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 66¢ $138 $150 +$12 (+9%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 62¢ 76¢ $74 $92 +$17 (+23%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $78 $34 −$44 (-57%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 54¢ 76¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+40%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-35%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 13¢ 13¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 34¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+112%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 21 $10 −$2 -15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $8 +$12 +156%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $36 +$36 +97%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $13 +$10 +82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$27 +53%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 19 $217 +$16 +8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $182 +$36 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $10 +$6 +56%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $89 +$9 +10%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $237 −$171 -72%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 06 $13 −$13 -96%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30? May 03 $30 +$270 +900%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? Apr 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31? Mar 31 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $50 +$78 +155%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 15 $189 +$28 +15%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $84 +$31 +37%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $120 −$80 -67%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 03 $50 −$11 -23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $102 −$102 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? Mar 01 $80 +$110 +138%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $265 −$40 -15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Feb 27 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 18 $60 +$64 +107%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 27 $100 +$9 +9%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 27 $26 +$2 +7%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jan 06 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? Jan 05 $10 −$3 -34%
Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 70 ETH in 2025? Dec 22 $9 −$8 -93%
Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 60 ETH in 2025? Dec 22 $82 −$81 -99%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 20 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Dec 16 $40 +$159 +398%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Dec 01 $16 −$4 -25%
Pengu above $0.05 on November 30? Nov 09 $54 −$51 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November? Nov 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $10 +$21 +212%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 13-19? Oct 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 12 $10 −$10 -100%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Oct 02 $5 $0 +8%
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Oct 02 $250 +$47 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 62¢ $74 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 63¢ $95 2h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 54¢ $9 2h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 65¢ $68 3h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 55¢ $12 3h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 56¢ $84 3h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 64¢ $64 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 34¢ $2 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL Yes 11¢ $8 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 33¢ $88 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 31¢ $129 4h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 60¢ $20 28h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $72 28h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 72¢ $23 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $77 28h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 39h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 46h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.70 · official $320.70 (match) · 532 history records