Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x294b…f554 sports 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,648 (+49%) realized +$1,648 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$371
14 days+$520
30 days+$1,608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$939
other 22% +$669
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 50% +22.6%
≤30d 9 +27.0% +14.9% 67% 67% +33.7%
≤90d 9 +27.0% +14.9% 67% 67% +33.7%
all 9 +27.0% +14.9% 67% 67% +33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 67% +33.7%
10% +3.9% 67% +20.9%
15% -6.1% 67% +9.2%
20% -15.3% 67% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$224 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage18d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $747 +$669 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $298 −$298 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $76 −$75 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $75 +$82 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $152 +$142 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $523 +$487 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $304 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $452 +$420 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $745 +$481 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $746 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $298 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $76 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $75 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 51¢ $152 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 51¢ $523 15d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $304 19d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $872 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,225 20d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $452 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $744 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records