Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x294d…c87b
crypto · 245 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$48 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses156 / 86
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 245
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 242 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$5 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$15
weather 22% −$32
politics 4% +$4
other 3% −$6
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +2.9% -6.9% 76% 49% -11.0%
≤30d 166 -2.0% -11.4% 73% 46% -15.4%
≤90d 242 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 43% -19.9%
all 242 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 43% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 43% -19.9%
10% -22.9% 28% -27.6%
15% -30.3% 17% -34.6%
20% -37.1% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.87 · official $2.87 (match) · 562 history records