Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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29 0x294e…e8f5 crypto 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$132 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%143W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$66
14 days−$1,020
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$765
sports 41% +$429
other 7% +$178
world 1% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -8.8% -17.5% 35% 32% -7.3%
≤30d 332 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 35% -15.6%
≤90d 365 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 36% -12.8%
all 365 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 36% -12.8%
10% -21.8% 35% -21.1%
15% -29.3% 35% -28.7%
20% -36.3% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$24 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses143 / 222
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)365 / 368
History coverage77d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$212 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$110 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$1 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $131 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$32 +77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $364 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $152 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $125 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 8¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $23 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $19 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $199.90 (match) · 1012 history records