Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2950…d569 sports 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$27 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%51W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$42
other 38% −$15
politics 8% +$51
world 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -49.1% -54.0% 19% 19% -73.0%
≤30d 16 -49.1% -54.0% 19% 19% -73.0%
≤90d 16 -49.1% -54.0% 19% 19% -73.0%
all 117 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 40% -12.1%
10% -24.3% 36% -20.5%
15% -31.6% 31% -28.2%
20% -38.3% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses51 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage398d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 26¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$2 +54%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$2 +111%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +162%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -84%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$5 -67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$3 -66%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrea Giovannini (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 20 Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bart Swings (BEL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Sp Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $10 +$8 +75%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5) Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gilli Kim (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spee Feb 21 $8 +$22 +277%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Minjeong Choi (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mac Forehand (USA) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at t Feb 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Xandra Velzeboer (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Courtney Sarault (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Minjeong Choi (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Feb 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $18 +$7 +41%
Medjedovic vs. Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Feb 04 $11 +$7 +59%
Set Handicap: Medjedovic (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5) Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Kovacevic (-1.5) vs Kouame (+1.5) Feb 04 $10 +$6 +61%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 Feb 04 $5 $0 -0%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Alexandra Eala Feb 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Sasnovich vs. Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kouame vs Kovacevic Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Transylvania Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Anastasia Zakharova Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Feb 04 $10 +$8 +75%
Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5 Feb 04 $3 +$2 +72%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Feb 04 $5 +$5 +104%
Goyang vs. KCC Egis Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $7 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $4 5h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $4 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2 19h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 19h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 19h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 20h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 25¢ $3 20h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 46¢ $2 22h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 22h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $8 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $9 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 21¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 11¢ $2 2d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 114d
Will Andrea Giovannini (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 20 BUY Yes 16¢ $4 114d
Will Bart Swings (BEL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Sp BUY Yes 17¢ $4 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.52 · official $2.52 (match) · 212 history records