Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2950…5bb4 crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%107W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$299
14 days−$262
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$427
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +33.5% +20.8% 44% 34% -28.7%
≤30d 198 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 40% -16.7%
≤90d 198 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 40% -16.7%
all 198 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 40% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 40% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 28% -24.6%
15% -26.2% 21% -31.9%
20% -33.4% 14% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses107 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)198 / 198
History coverage20d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 198 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$9 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$35 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$83 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $64 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$78 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$33 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$45 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $97 +$69 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $119 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$22 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$46 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $88 +$48 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $99 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $132 −$21 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $44 −$38 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $42 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$37 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $92 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $113 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $55 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $94 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $90 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $184 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $126 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $126 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $93 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $93 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $84 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records