Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2951…8f9f other 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,237 (-34%) realized −$9,042 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%38W / 83L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$629
14 days−$629
30 days−$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$4,296
other 27% −$4,790
sports 17% +$18
world 8% −$132
economics 1% −$100
crypto 1% −$148
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.8% -41.0% 36% 27% -34.7%
≤30d 11 -34.8% -41.0% 36% 27% -34.7%
≤90d 11 -34.8% -41.0% 36% 27% -34.7%
all 121 -10.4% -19.0% 31% 27% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 27% -41.7%
10% -26.7% 25% -47.3%
15% -33.8% 23% -52.4%
20% -40.3% 21% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$164 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$9,042
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses38 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)121 / 125
History coverage598d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under 52¢ 18¢ $263 $90 −$173 (-66%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $372 +$10 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $424 −$29 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $270 +$173 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $134 +$91 +68%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 +$90 +89%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $137 −$133 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $680 −$670 -99%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31? Dec 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zelenskyy meet with Netanyahu in 2025? Dec 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 10–15 seconds? Dec 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $61 −$50 -82%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 15 seconds or longer? Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug in 2025? Dec 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk? Dec 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 26 $36 +$746 +2064%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Oct 28 $536 −$18 -3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? Oct 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Galatasaray win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $207 +$40 +20%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $48 +$159 +333%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? Sep 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September? Sep 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday? Aug 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 18 $115 +$29 +25%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August? Aug 17 $349 −$118 -34%
Zelensky in Alaska by Sunday? Aug 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? Aug 17 $8 −$4 -44%
BLAST Bounty: Vitality vs. The MongolZ Aug 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday? Aug 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Aug 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Taylor Swift release a new original album by August 31? Aug 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15? Aug 12 $47 −$21 -44%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 10 $399 −$266 -67%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 10 $18 −$5 -27%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 10 $77 +$15 +19%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 12 $425 −$31 -7%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $314 −$81 -26%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 10 $617 −$617 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 01 $196 −$196 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $267 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $138 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 30m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 32m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 33m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $382 44m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $372 47m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 48¢ $394 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $424 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $225 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $45 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $80 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $250 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $45 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.79 · official $90.50 (match) · 682 history records