Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x2952…4e7e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$376 (-11%) realized −$376 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$709per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,682
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -79.1%
≤30d 5 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -79.1%
≤90d 5 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -79.1%
all 5 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -79.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 20% -79.1%
10% -66.7% 20% -81.1%
15% -69.9% 20% -82.9%
20% -72.9% 20% -84.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$773 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$709
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $816 −$800 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $401 −$392 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $406 −$400 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $396 +$410 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $816 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,524 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $401 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $406 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $396 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records