Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2952…bcaf sports 594 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-5%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%238W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$178
other 9% +$24
world 5% −$10
politics 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 40% +22.6%
≤30d 247 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 43% -9.0%
≤90d 593 -5.9% -14.9% 40% 35% -14.5%
all 593 -5.9% -14.9% 40% 35% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 35% -14.5%
10% -23.0% 32% -22.7%
15% -30.5% 30% -30.2%
20% -37.3% 27% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses238 / 355
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)593 / 594
History coverage88d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$17 +83%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -53%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $3 $0 -3%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $29 +$30 +104%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -71%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 22 $10 −$6 -64%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $5 +$7 +145%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $5 −$2 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$6 +123%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 $0 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $5 +$1 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $5 −$1 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $5 +$3 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 +$1 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $5 +$4 +82%
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $12 −$7 -58%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 26 $1 +$5 +473%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty: O/U 176.5 May 26 $2 +$2 +99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $5 +$4 +81%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $3 +$2 +95%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3 +$2 +81%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 May 26 $2 +$3 +123%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 May 26 $2 +$3 +139%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 May 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 25 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 14h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 36¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes $2 15h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 15h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $56 15h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $3 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 15h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes $1 15h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists SELL Yes 12¢ $4 17h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $29 17h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 17h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $20 17h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 17h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $2 17h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $2 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes $2 17h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $5 19d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 100¢ $12 20d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 40¢ $5 20d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 34¢ $5 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $5 21d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.23 · official $70.23 (match) · 1060 history records