Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2952…1fe7 other 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$200 (-21%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$436
14 days−$221
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$285
crypto 36% +$62
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.8% -32.0% 25% 25% -79.0%
≤30d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 36% 36% -31.0%
≤90d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 36% 36% -31.0%
all 14 -11.0% -19.5% 36% 36% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 36% -31.0%
10% -27.2% 29% -37.6%
15% -34.2% 21% -43.6%
20% -40.7% 7% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$50 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$7 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$8 -23%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 $0 -3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +30%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $394 −$394 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $244 +$89 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $118 +$126 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $11 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records