Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x2953…ec9e other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$408 (+15%) realized +$402 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%62W / 76L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$71
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$219
other 47% +$118
politics 3% +$3
crypto 2% +$9
culture 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +48.5% +34.4% 80% 60% +15.5%
≤30d 7 +24.2% +12.4% 71% 57% +11.7%
≤90d 89 +25.3% +13.4% 52% 46% +5.6%
all 138 +21.4% +9.9% 45% 41% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 41% +7.3%
10% -0.6% 34% -2.9%
15% -10.2% 30% -12.3%
20% -19.0% 22% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$402
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 76
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions10
Markets (closed)138 / 148
History coverage228d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $81 $99 +$18 (+23%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $16 +$4 (+29%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+54%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $12 $4 −$9 (-70%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Caio Borralho be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $21 +$38 +183%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $41 +$9 +23%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $52 −$3 -6%
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $61 +$24 +40%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $43 +$12 +27%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) May 28 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $8 +$43 +550%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-2 May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5 May 22 $125 +$72 +58%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 22 $1 +$1 +82%
Spread: Independiente Medellín (-1.5) May 22 $20 +$20 +99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 22 $78 +$48 +61%
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? May 20 $33 −$23 -69%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 19 $7 +$2 +36%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $5 +$5 +107%
Exact Score: SC Bastia 0 - 3 Le Mans FC? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Bastia vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SC Bastia win on 2026-05-09? May 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 15 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $72 +$23 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $159 +$29 +18%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $13 +$5 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the May 06 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 06 $48 −$8 -16%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $40 −$4 -11%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $51 +$65 +127%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 02 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $6 +$12 +197%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $16 −$1 -6%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $40 −$4 -10%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 01 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Mason Greenwood be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 sea May 01 $9 −$6 -72%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $8 −$6 -74%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $43 +$12 +29%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 01 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Apr 29 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $58 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $51 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 10h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 26h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 98¢ $20 26h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 98¢ $35 26h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 97¢ $9 26h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 96¢ $8 26h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 95¢ $10 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $55 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.40 · official $209.40 (match) · 643 history records