Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2955…ab27 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-5%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$136
sports 33% −$97
crypto 23% +$72
politics 2% +$75
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.0% -30.3% 29% 29% -28.8%
≤30d 9 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 44% -21.5%
≤90d 9 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 44% -21.5%
all 53 +8.0% -2.3% 28% 28% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 28% -18.4%
10% -11.6% 28% -26.2%
15% -20.2% 28% -33.3%
20% -28.0% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage212d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 −$29 -62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $97 −$67 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$47 -31%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 +$48 +134%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $81 +$54 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $12 +$6 +56%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 29 $20 +$28 +138%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 10 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5 Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $57 +$33 +59%
Will the fight end in a draw? Dec 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Dec 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jake Paul win by decision or technical decision? Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $26 +$23 +89%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Dec 05 $10 −$2 -19%
Solana Up or Down - November 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be between Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Solana dip to $100 in November? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24? Nov 25 $25 +$75 +300%
Solana Up or Down - November 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Nov 25 $5 +$10 +194%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 23? Nov 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 23? Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Jair Bolsonaro in jail by December 31? Nov 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Giants vs. Lions Nov 23 $19 −$6 -29%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $4 +$20 +462%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 22 $20 +$11 +53%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 22 $5 +$4 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $39 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $104 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 134d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 134d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 23¢ $20 145d
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5 BUY Under 48¢ $50 145d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $57 181d
Will the fight end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 182d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 182d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 182d
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 185d
Will Jake Paul win by decision or technical decision? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 185d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 195d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 196d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 196d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.14 · official $57.14 · 105 history records