Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
29 0x2955…794a sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-5%) realized −$169 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$262
14 days−$143
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$267
other 15% −$208
crypto 6% −$30
world 5% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +6.0% -4.1% 46% 46% -19.2%
≤30d 51 +25.0% +13.1% 47% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 51 +25.0% +13.1% 47% 47% -14.7%
all 51 +25.0% +13.1% 47% 47% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 47% -14.7%
10% +2.2% 47% -22.9%
15% -7.6% 47% -30.3%
20% -16.7% 45% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$54 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage8d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Yeon-Woo Ku 34¢ 100¢ $25 $75 +$49 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +154%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $85 −$84 -98%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 18 $45 +$40 +88%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $124 −$122 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $76 +$113 +149%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $37 +$39 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$148 +145%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $90 +$83 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$35 +134%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $101 +$65 +64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $38 +$31 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $71 +$90 +127%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $68 +$58 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$65 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $44 +$79 +180%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 +$90 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$37 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$56 +137%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$74 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Maria Florencia Urrutia Jun 12 $5 +$5 +84%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 +$50 +226%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $14 +$63 +442%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$56 +550%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 15h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 48¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 24h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 41¢ $85 27h
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Sakura Hosogi BUY Naho Sato 52¢ $45 36h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 40¢ $37 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $124 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $39 3d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 99¢ $189 3d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 39¢ $76 3d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 99¢ $76 3d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 47¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $37 3d
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 48¢ $19 3d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 49¢ $57 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $61 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $250 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $102 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $90 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $167 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $69 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.67 · official $74.67 (match) · 85 history records