Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x295d…5dc8
other · 137 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$668 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$900 · open +$233
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,821
Realized−$900
Unrealized+$233
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses49 / 78
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)127 / 137
History coverage91d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 10 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$77
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 47¢ 93¢ $240 $479 +$239 (+100%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $350 $366 +$16 (+5%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 84¢ $110 $168 +$58 (+53%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 43¢ 42¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $149 $76 −$73 (-49%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-06? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? No 30¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Newcastle United FC? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $180 +$74 +41%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 01 $142 −$140 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 27 $58 −$57 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $200 +$146 +73%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $37 +$27 +73%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $40 +$47 +119%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 19 $750 +$107 +14%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $160 −$158 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $121 +$117 +97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $25 +$41 +165%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Newcastle United FC? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $37 +$149 +402%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $210 +$127 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $134 −$132 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 11 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $150 +$24 +16%
West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $50 +$45 +90%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $350 +$36 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $81 +$70 +86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $20 +$88 +442%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Sabres vs. Kings Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episo Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? Apr 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Apr 06 $190 −$190 -100%
Will "Jamie" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 06 $176 −$176 -100%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 06 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$679
world 16% +$41
sports 15% −$313
crypto 9% +$200
politics 9% +$273
finance 3% −$270
culture 1% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 43¢ $153 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $51 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $410 1h
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 37d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 45¢ $142 42d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 42d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 42d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $58 46d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 46d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $110 47d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 47d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 48d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 48d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 52d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 52d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $65 52d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 54d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 54d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 54d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY No 87¢ $750 61d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 61d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 61d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 61d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $160 61d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 61d
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Newcastle United FC? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 61d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $121 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +151.8% +127.8% 100% 100% +127.8%
≤30d 2 +96.3% +77.6% 100% 100% +49.6%
≤90d 122 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 36% -19.6%
all 127 -7.2% -16.0% 39% 37% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 37% -17.0%
10% -24.0% 33% -24.9%
15% -31.4% 30% -32.2%
20% -38.1% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,820.66 · official $1,820.66 (match) · 271 history records