Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x295e…33d4 other 14 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$84 (+22%) realized +$76 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$69
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$83
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.9% +7.6% 86% 86% +22.2%
≤30d 8 +22.0% +10.4% 88% 88% +22.8%
≤90d 8 +22.0% +10.4% 88% 88% +22.8%
all 8 +22.0% +10.4% 88% 88% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 88% +22.8%
10% -0.2% 75% +11.0%
15% -9.8% 62% +0.3%
20% -18.7% 25% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.12 per $1 lost it wins $16.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 65¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 +$22 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.51 · official $167.51 (match) · 22 history records