Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

29 0x295e…6696 crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$83 (+35%) realized +$108 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+23.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+36.8%	+23.8%	67%	67%	+21.2%
≤30d	3	+36.8%	+23.8%	67%	67%	+21.2%
≤90d	3	+36.8%	+23.8%	67%	67%	+21.2%
all	3	+36.8%	+23.8%	67%	67%	+21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.8%	67%	+21.2%
10%	+11.9%	67%	+9.6%
15%	+1.1%	67%	-1.0%
20%	-8.8%	67%	-10.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$48 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized+$108

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$92	$67	−$25 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$49	−$48	-98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$39	+$36	+92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21?	Jun 21	$49	+$58	+119%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	9¢	$98	1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$49	8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22?	SELL Yes	96¢	$75	8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	48¢	$39	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21?	BUY Yes	44¢	$49	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.72 · official $66.72 (match) · 6 history records