Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2961…90bf other 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%161W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$3
crypto 45% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
≤30d 166 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 166 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
all 166 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses161 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 13h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.12 (match) · 338 history records