Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2965…0ded sports 745 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (210 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$417 (+1%) realized +$386 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%290W / 424L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day210.0pace
Fees−$586est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$794
7 days−$2,812
14 days−$1,589
30 days−$1,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,496
other 20% −$71
crypto 0% −$18
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (210 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -10.7% -19.2% 40% 39% -17.5%
≤30d 714 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 39% -12.6%
≤90d 714 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 39% -12.6%
all 714 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover210.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 39% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 35% -21.0%
15% -31.0% 30% -28.6%
20% -37.8% 24% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$38 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses290 / 424
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$586
Open positions29
Markets (closed)714 / 745
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day210.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 56¢ 92¢ $137 $228 +$91 (+66%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 30¢ 34¢ $121 $137 +$16 (+13%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 35¢ 50¢ $41 $58 +$17 (+43%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Lois Boisson 20¢ 50¢ $19 $48 +$28 (+148%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jenson Brooksby 40¢ 40¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 31¢ 84¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+173%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Lorenzo Giustino 15¢ 18¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+20%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Dane Sweeny 20¢ 36¢ $15 $26 +$12 (+80%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ 34¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Paula Badosa 52¢ 58¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+13%)
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Margaux Rouvroy 40¢ 44¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 57¢ 100¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+75%)
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Alevtina Ibragimova 57¢ 56¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ 62¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+43%)
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Maxim Mrva 72¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Deborah Chiesa 26¢ 26¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Matilde Jorge 22¢ 8¢ $20 $8 −$13 (-61%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 45¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 66¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 68¢ 69¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 50¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Lukas Neumayer 83¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $9 +$6 +62%
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan Jun 16 $69 +$41 +59%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $2 +$8 +414%
ITF Blois: Amandine Hesse vs Jasmijn Gimbrere Jun 16 $19 +$5 +24%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $62 +$8 +12%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $22 +$6 +29%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $135 +$128 +95%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $159 −$5 -3%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $154 −$132 -85%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $86 +$7 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$6 +48%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $77 +$109 +142%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Jun 15 $81 −$58 -72%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $17 +$8 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $22 +$104 +474%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $44 +$53 +120%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $62 −$38 -61%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $27 +$9 +34%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $32 +$28 +86%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $29 −$16 -55%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $137 −$49 -36%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $14 +$11 +76%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $46 −$22 -48%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $74 −$24 -33%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 2m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 2m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $13 4m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 64¢ $3 5m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $11 9m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $7 14m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 55¢ $11 16m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 15¢ $0 16m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 45¢ $7 18m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $7 19m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $7 24m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $13 27m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 15¢ $7 31m
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Benjamin Willwerth 16¢ $2 36m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 38¢ $11 36m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 66¢ $5 38m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 27¢ $8 58m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 32¢ $3 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Michael Zhu 21¢ $11 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 35¢ $6 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 26¢ $8 1h
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan BUY Lucie Nguyen Tan 51¢ $15 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 19¢ $2 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 15¢ $14 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 61¢ $3 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 57¢ $9 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 61¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 28¢ $8 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Matilde Jorge 22¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $918.62 · official $918.64 (match) · 3500 history records