Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2967…33be world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$13
politics 28% $0
sports 26% −$19
other 6% −$8
economics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 25 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 32 -7.5% -16.3% 31% 3% -10.0%
all 37 -7.7% -16.5% 30% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 3% -10.2%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage99d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 78¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $166 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $76 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -92%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $103 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $183 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $66 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $262 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $23 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $3 −$2 -59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $94 −$6 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $59 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $649 −$15 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $83 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $714 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $316 −$2 -1%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $68 −$8 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $26 −$7 -26%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 13 $722 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $155 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $32 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $19 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $19 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $87 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $87 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $90 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $88 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $79 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $78 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $79 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $77 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $71 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $76 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.42 · official $82.42 (match) · 147 history records