Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2968…8438
crypto · 583 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$188 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$191 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized+$191
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses285 / 294
Open positions4
Markets (closed)579 / 583
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2278.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 579 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Down 46¢ 51¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 53¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 44¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Up 68¢ 49¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $133 +$134 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $132 +$168 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$11 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$124 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $121 +$150 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$56 +118%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$9 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$21 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$3 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$27 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$17 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$72 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$13 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$30 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$9 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $45 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$35 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$12 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 579 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 45% -8.1%
≤30d 579 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 45% -8.1%
≤90d 579 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 45% -8.1%
all 579 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 45% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2278.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 45% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 42% -16.9%
15% -21.2% 40% -24.9%
20% -28.9% 37% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.93 · official $32.79 (match) · 3500 history records