Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x296b…375e crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$43
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.8% -8.8% 87% 56% -3.8%
≤30d 45 +0.8% -8.8% 87% 56% -3.8%
≤90d 45 +0.8% -8.8% 87% 56% -3.8%
all 45 +0.8% -8.8% 87% 56% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 56% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 13% -13.0%
15% -25.5% 7% -21.4%
20% -32.8% 4% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.17 · official $140.17 (match) · 83 history records