Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x296b…2cf2 other 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 1285d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 1285d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,784 (+14%) realized +$27,955 · open −$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%168W / 185L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$76
14 days+$1,172
30 days+$9,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,711
politics 23% +$9,653
economics 12% −$1,650
crypto 9% +$2,440
world 5% +$507
sports 4% +$2,541
tech 1% −$525
culture 0% −$21
weather 0% −$4
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 33% -3.4%
≤30d 15 +32.6% +19.9% 60% 53% +123.5%
≤90d 23 +33.8% +21.1% 57% 48% +97.5%
all 353 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 33% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 33% -4.1%
10% -27.3% 27% -13.2%
15% -34.3% 20% -21.6%
20% -40.8% 16% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$145 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1285d coverage
Net worth$2,449
Realized+$27,955
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses168 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)353 / 368
History coverage1285d ⚠
Avg bet$546
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $1,422 $1,194 −$228 (-16%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $424 $413 −$12 (-3%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $244 $321 +$77 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $167 $197 +$30 (+18%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $145 $140 −$5 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $154 $136 −$18 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 56¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 18 $67 −$48 -71%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $45 +$55 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $820 +$158 +19%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 +$95 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $119 −$118 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $531 +$144 +27%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,860 +$974 +52%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 06 $12 −$11 -96%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $237 +$77 +33%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $1,443 +$5,556 +385%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $1,158 +$2,818 +243%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $907 −$229 -25%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $295 +$21 +7%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $14 +$68 +486%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $71 +$28 +40%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $47 −$47 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $44 +$22 +51%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Mar 22 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Mar 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Mar 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before the end of 2025? Mar 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Mar 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Mar 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Mar 22 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July? Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July? Mar 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Mar 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Mar 22 $105 −$73 -69%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 22 $21 −$21 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Mar 22 $121 −$96 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $1 36m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $8 46m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $8 46m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $8 46m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $83 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 29¢ $149 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $37 42h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $3 43h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $17 44h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $41 45h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $35 46h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $37 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 41¢ $35 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 42¢ $122 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 4¢ $20 2d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 59¢ $86 2d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 62¢ $186 3d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 62¢ $17 3d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 63¢ $315 3d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 56¢ $3 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $45 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $616 3d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 63¢ $295 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $968 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 5d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 62¢ $30 5d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 62¢ $19 5d
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 36¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,448.61 · official $2,448.61 (match) · 3500 history records