Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2972…3f29 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,971 (+6%) realized +$6,491 · open −$520
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%48W / 53L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1,636est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$356
7 days+$594
14 days−$3,042
30 days+$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$3,751
other 8% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 42% -6.4%
≤30d 73 -10.2% -18.7% 44% 42% -8.2%
≤90d 101 +8.4% -2.0% 48% 46% -5.2%
all 101 +8.4% -2.0% 48% 46% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 46% -5.2%
10% -11.3% 46% -14.3%
15% -19.9% 46% -22.5%
20% -27.8% 44% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,083) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +58% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$982 vs −$807 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,904
Realized+$6,491
Unrealized−$520
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses48 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,636
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 108
History coverage78d
Avg bet$945
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Athletics 51¢ 50¢ $1,477 $1,434 −$43 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 53¢ 26¢ $947 $470 −$476 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,013 +$710 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,023 +$49 +5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,061 +$857 +81%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $711 −$700 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $1,019 +$1,027 +101%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $997 −$979 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,343 −$1,319 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,395 −$54 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $1,194 −$1,175 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $789 −$789 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,013 +$771 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,000 +$1,393 +139%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 22 $472 −$472 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $83 −$82 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1,001 −$990 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $1,392 +$976 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $785 +$600 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,199 +$773 +64%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $951 −$939 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,015 −$35 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $984 −$970 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,552 −$3,119 -68%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $985 +$640 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $983 +$696 +71%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $838 −$342 -41%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $893 −$7 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,397 −$885 -63%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $892 −$892 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $908 −$342 -38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $234 +$119 +51%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $533 −$26 -5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1,001 −$986 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $548 −$16 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,407 +$3,017 +214%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 14 $1,420 −$47 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 14 $485 +$382 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 14 $164 −$164 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Jun 14 $509 −$509 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Jun 14 $710 −$710 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $867 −$867 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $899 −$899 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 14 $918 −$918 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $512 −$512 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 14 $496 −$496 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 14 $956 −$956 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $569 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $507 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,071 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $992 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $391 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,023 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,722 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $711 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,013 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,918 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,061 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $2,046 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $1,019 10h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY $203 28h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $997 32h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 14¢ $4 46h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $1,339 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 61¢ $1,341 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 62¢ $1,395 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 15¢ $100 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 12¢ $105 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $1 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $1,783 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $989 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $789 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $1,013 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $2,393 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $3 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $996 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,904.36 · official $1,857.64 · 276 history records