Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
29 0x2973…2895 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 20% $0
politics 15% +$1
culture 9% $0
crypto 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 31 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage275d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $9 +$1 +13%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 02 $7 $0 +6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $32 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $32 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $29 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $29 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $23 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $14 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $11 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $20 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.23 (match) · 99 history records