Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x2975…0aaf sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$74 (+7%) realized +$88 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%30W / 23L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$382
14 days+$377
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$230
other 23% +$75
crypto 2% +$67
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +64.7% +49.1% 59% 59% +32.3%
≤30d 53 +52.6% +38.1% 57% 57% +28.4%
≤90d 53 +52.6% +38.1% 57% 57% +28.4%
all 53 +52.6% +38.1% 57% 57% +28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.1% 57% +28.4%
10% +24.9% 57% +16.1%
15% +12.8% 55% +4.9%
20% +1.8% 43% -5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage11d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 33¢ 8¢ $20 $5 −$14 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $27 +$36 +135%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $30 +$38 +126%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$18 +46%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$12 +123%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $17 −$11 -67%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $17 +$20 +118%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$17 +172%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$15 +84%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A Jun 23 $11 +$46 +414%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 AND Jun 23 $30 +$33 +110%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 Jun 22 $34 +$24 +71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$48 +48%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $31 −$31 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$12 +118%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$41 +1396%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $22 +$38 +172%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$30 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $20 +$67 +330%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$16 +72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$13 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $15 +$15 +96%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $17 +$8 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$4 -25%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $12 +$3 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $21 +$10 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$12 +118%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $74 21m
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 67¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 202 BUY 24¢ $23 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $20 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 42¢ $27 11h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 23¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $12 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $22 18h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY OG 26¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 44¢ $10 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $40 20h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal leading at halftime? BUY 44¢ $30 20h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 45¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 34¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL Grind Back 13¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 41¢ $15 23h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 38¢ $17 23h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $37 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 35¢ $20 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 45¢ $17 26h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 66¢ $13 28h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $10 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 AN BUY 22¢ $17 30h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 54¢ $18 32h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A BUY 19¢ $11 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 65¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 45¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.03 · official $27.63 · 96 history records