Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x2977…4425 sports 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$10
other 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 45% -7.1%
≤30d 37 -0.7% -10.2% 46% 46% -11.6%
≤90d 37 -0.7% -10.2% 46% 46% -11.6%
all 38 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 45% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 45% -12.9%
10% -20.9% 45% -21.2%
15% -28.5% 45% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 45% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage234d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$10 +98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +134%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$18 +134%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $9 +$15 +165%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$26 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 +$9 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$5 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 +$10 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Metizport (BO3) Oct 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $6 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Engla BUY $15 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $23 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $16 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 42¢ $12 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $13 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 4d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $9 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $10 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records