Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2977…b566 crypto 37 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-11%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.4% -25.3% 27% 27% -20.9%
≤30d 37 -17.4% -25.3% 27% 27% -20.9%
≤90d 37 -17.4% -25.3% 27% 27% -20.9%
all 37 -17.4% -25.3% 27% 27% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 27% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 27% -28.5%
15% -39.0% 27% -35.4%
20% -45.0% 27% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $48 −$27 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$16 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$68 +524%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$35 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$22 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records