Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x297d…8941 sports 78 markets active 1d ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$134 (+8%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$208
14 days−$108
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$253
other 41% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -32.4% -38.9% 32% 32% -41.5%
≤30d 41 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 41% -21.2%
≤90d 72 +23.2% +11.5% 46% 44% -3.4%
all 72 +23.2% +11.5% 46% 44% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.5% 44% -3.4%
10% +0.8% 44% -12.7%
15% -8.9% 44% -21.1%
20% -17.8% 43% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 78
History coverage49d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 +$16 +90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $38 +$37 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$25 +110%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $26 +$26 +97%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $175 −$161 -92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $13 +$9 +65%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 +$37 +510%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $20 +$24 +119%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Torino FC 1 - 2 Juventus FC? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Draw at halftime? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $48 −$47 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 05 $24 +$24 +97%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score May 04 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $33 −$33 -99%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $23 −$23 -98%
Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 May 03 $30 +$22 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye $5 29h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $17 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $21 38h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $18 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $15 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $75 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $38 42h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will C BUY 26¢ $53 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will G BUY $9 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $47 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $12 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. No BUY $10 3d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $4 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 5d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco BUY $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records