Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x297e…612f crypto 300 markets active 5d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$510 (-3%) realized −$510 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%199W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$383
14 days−$806
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$416
crypto 21% −$105
other 8% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.7% -22.0% 61% 39% -18.4%
≤30d 143 +2.5% -7.2% 76% 46% -12.7%
≤90d 271 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 42% -13.6%
all 300 +4.7% -5.2% 66% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 47% -12.5%
10% -14.3% 35% -20.9%
15% -22.6% 24% -28.6%
20% -30.2% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$39 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$510
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses199 / 101
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage117d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $325 −$321 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $395 +$66 +17%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $383 +$12 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $364 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $294 +$56 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $292 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $123 −$120 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $102 +$168 +165%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $102 +$116 +114%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $479 +$46 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $229 +$79 +35%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $405 −$399 -98%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $131 +$11 +8%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $308 +$128 +42%
Arka Gdynia vs. Dziki Warszawa Jun 10 $299 +$9 +3%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $254 −$253 -100%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $224 +$30 +13%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $201 +$22 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $200 +$8 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 09 $201 +$20 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $300 +$12 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 09 $200 +$6 +3%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $267 +$6 +2%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $57 +$2 +4%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $283 +$91 +32%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $101 +$50 +50%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $101 +$28 +28%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $101 +$27 +27%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $100 +$13 +13%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $102 +$281 +275%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 07 $42 +$84 +202%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $101 +$55 +54%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $249 +$21 +8%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $220 +$29 +13%
Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 06 $146 −$145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$15 +29%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $381 +$50 +13%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $362 +$19 +5%
Exact Score: Georgia 2 - 1 Bahrain? Jun 05 $335 +$28 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 62¢ $325 5d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 45¢ $102 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $169 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 59¢ $101 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 53¢ $101 5d
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BUY Lokomotiv Kuban 85¢ $395 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 97¢ $383 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $384 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $364 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $294 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $292 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife $21 6d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife 18¢ $102 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $270 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 37¢ $102 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 71¢ $202 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 46¢ $102 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 50¢ $102 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 91¢ $479 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 74¢ $229 6d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Olympiacos B.C. 49¢ $405 7d
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji BUY Bahcesehir Koleji 37¢ $141 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $131 7d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 33¢ $102 7d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 43¢ $102 7d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 53¢ $101 7d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $435 7d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $308 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 637 history records