Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2981…e39f crypto 1255 markets active 5h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$382 (-3%) realized −$382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%898W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$24
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$529
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 36% -7.7%
≤30d 133 +6.0% -4.1% 74% 45% -8.9%
≤90d 1255 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 27% -12.8%
all 1255 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 27% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 27% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 11% -21.1%
15% -28.4% 5% -28.7%
20% -35.5% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses898 / 357
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1255 / 1255
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1255 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records