Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

29 0x2981…ef23 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$167 (-18%) realized −$167 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%4W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$85per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-39.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-32.7%	-39.1%	40%	40%	-27.3%
≤30d	10	-32.7%	-39.1%	40%	40%	-27.3%
≤90d	10	-32.7%	-39.1%	40%	40%	-27.3%
all	10	-32.7%	-39.1%	40%	40%	-27.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.1%	40%	-27.3%
10%	-44.9%	40%	-34.3%
15%	-50.2%	40%	-40.6%
20%	-55.1%	30%	-46.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$72 vs −$77 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$167

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses4 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage6d

Avg bet$85

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$81	+$46	+57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$209	−$207	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$135	+$74	+55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$91	+$43	+48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$30	−$30	-99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$109	+$124	+114%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	54¢	$20	10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$15	10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$61	10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$209	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$135	2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$91	3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	59¢	$30	6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	74¢	$101	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$109	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.59 (match) · 16 history records