Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x2982…2d3d sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$179 (+35%) realized +$182 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$127
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$87
sports 33% +$99
crypto 5% −$9
world 1% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% +20.5%
≤30d 43 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% +20.5%
≤90d 48 +14.5% +3.6% 50% 50% +26.1%
all 52 +25.3% +13.4% 54% 54% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 54% +27.5%
10% +2.5% 46% +15.3%
15% -7.4% 44% +4.2%
20% -16.5% 37% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$182
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage100d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $19 +$2 (+14%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 45¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$19 +32%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Raptors vs. Rockets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Jazz Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Pacers vs. Kings Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Spurs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Hornets vs. Magic Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $15 −$3 -17%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$5 +53%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$17 +324%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$45 +64%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$4 -88%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +405%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +122%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$54 +528%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $15 +$11 +71%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 30 $5 +$8 +165%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 30 $5 +$9 +188%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $5 +$9 +188%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $3 +$4 +147%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 11 $1 +$2 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $36 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $8 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 12h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 12h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 13h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $15 13h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 13h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $3 14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5 14h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $16 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 15h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 32¢ $5 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.94 · official $72.94 (match) · 141 history records