Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2983…59d1
sports · 426 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$897 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$898 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses205 / 220
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)425 / 426
History coverage884d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 425 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$184
14 days−$135
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Toronto Marlies 49¢ 50¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 40¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 27¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage TheMongolz 51¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 53¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs 9z 49¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 33¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Utah vs. Golden Knights Utah 40¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds Colorado Eagles 53¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Team Falcons 61¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs 3DMAX 55¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) FURIA 53¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) B8 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Team Falcons 36¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Team Falcons 39¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 43¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Ducks 40¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BC.Game Esports 39¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 50¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Avalanche 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $55 +$17 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $69 +$100 +145%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $55 −$15 -28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 +$44 +109%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 10 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $29 +$27 +93%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $37 +$40 +109%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $35 +$79 +226%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $92 +$76 +83%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $61 +$78 +129%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 +$24 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $34 +$27 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $201 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 −$68 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $118 −$116 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $21 +$27 +132%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $36 +$36 +101%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $97 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $125 +$100 +80%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $100 +$45 +45%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $172 +$168 +98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $354 −$99 -28%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $125 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $86 +$137 +159%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $74 −$73 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $39 +$35 +90%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $120 +$88 +73%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $88 −$87 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) May 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $196 +$143 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $140 +$56 +40%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $34 +$34 +101%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $29 +$30 +101%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 18 $47 +$28 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $83 −$82 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $98 +$61 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$1,099
crypto 3% +$168
other 3% +$13
politics 1% +$66
world 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 49¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 61¢ $72 9h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 50¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $55 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $36 20h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $29 20h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 40¢ $69 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports 33¢ $40 33h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $55 34h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $84 35h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $40 2d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 43¢ $36 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $29 3d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) SELL Legacy 100¢ $77 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $92 3d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY B8 29¢ $31 3d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) BUY Legacy 47¢ $37 3d
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) BUY Monte 30¢ $35 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY G2 43¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $201 5d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 50¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 35¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 47¢ $69 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $48 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 97¢ $48 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 41¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 46% -22.0%
≤30d 56 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 48% -11.7%
≤90d 142 -11.2% -19.7% 45% 44% -16.2%
all 425 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% -12.8%
10% -20.8% 47% -21.1%
15% -28.5% 46% -28.7%
20% -35.5% 44% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.07 · official $22.07 (match) · 939 history records