Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2983…7dd0 world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$3
other 15% $0
sports 2% −$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.7% -11.0% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 16 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 17 +1.3% -8.4% 41% 6% -9.8%
all 32 -3.3% -12.5% 41% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -10.5%
10% -20.9% 3% -19.0%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $49 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $56 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +29%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $7 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $44 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 31 $11 $0 -1%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Maryland vs. Michigan Mar 07 $15 −$2 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 26m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 26m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $5 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $16 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $11 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $13 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $49 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $50 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 30h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $2 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $48 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $48 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $22 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $45 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records