Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2988…558c other 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-17%) realized −$112 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%134W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$130
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$117
sports 21% −$35
other 20% −$4
politics 3% −$15
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -19.3% -27.0% 47% 47% -40.8%
≤30d 73 -19.3% -27.0% 47% 47% -40.8%
≤90d 75 -21.5% -29.0% 45% 45% -41.4%
all 309 -11.4% -19.9% 43% 43% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 43% -33.5%
10% -27.5% 42% -39.9%
15% -34.5% 39% -45.7%
20% -41.0% 31% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses134 / 175
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)309 / 316
History coverage300d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 7¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 14¢ $5 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on BUY 4¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $14.90 · 686 history records