Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x298b…13d0 crypto 1190 markets active 4h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-10%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%386W / 804L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$12
14 days−$112
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$156
other 3% +$7
weather 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -30.8% -37.4% 43% 29% -24.5%
≤30d 675 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 29% -18.6%
≤90d 1155 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 27% -17.2%
all 1190 -20.7% -28.2% 32% 27% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 27% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 23% -24.9%
15% -41.4% 19% -32.2%
20% -47.1% 16% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses386 / 804
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1190 / 1190
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1190 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records