Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x298c…3e58 sports 807 markets active 1h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,583 (+5%) realized +$5,302 · open +$281
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%342W / 461L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$509
7 days+$2,219
14 days+$1,523
30 days+$1,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$3,534
other 5% +$629
politics 3% +$1,690
world 0% −$117
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 46% +46.4%
≤30d 43 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 40% +9.5%
≤90d 117 +0.0% -9.5% 41% 39% -12.8%
all 803 +4.5% -5.5% 43% 42% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 42% -4.7%
10% -14.5% 42% -13.8%
15% -22.8% 41% -22.2%
20% -30.4% 40% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$120 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$1,626
Realized+$5,302
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses342 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions4
Markets (closed)803 / 807
History coverage707d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1,000 $1,090 +$90 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $138 $247 +$109 (+79%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 76¢ $154 $245 +$91 (+59%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $43 −$10 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 319 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $742 +$692 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $238 −$235 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $162 +$158 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $178 −$176 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $161 +$184 +114%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $770 +$683 +89%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $164 +$186 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 19 $78 −$77 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $890 +$1,014 +114%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $156 −$153 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $143 +$95 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $109 −$107 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $277 −$272 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$178 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $269 −$265 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $448 +$452 +101%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $622 −$612 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $290 −$286 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $125 −$123 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $37 +$263 +712%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $272 +$379 +140%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne Jun 13 $40 +$38 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $114 −$112 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 04 $53 +$47 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 04 $107 +$93 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 03 $35 −$34 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 03 $39 −$38 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 03 $25 +$25 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Jun 03 $56 +$44 +79%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 03 $969 +$31 +3%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago Jun 02 $32 −$32 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 02 $57 −$56 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $276 +$157 +57%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $203 +$17 +8%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $103 −$101 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 24 $368 −$362 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $328 +$592 +180%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $282 −$279 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 22 $143 +$157 +109%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $496 −$489 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $156 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $238 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $742 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $162 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $107 29h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $178 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $10 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $161 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $696 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $27 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $6 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $35 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $2 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $164 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $73 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $24 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 59¢ $41 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 59¢ $18 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 57¢ $4 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 57¢ $14 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $283 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $303 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $303 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $156 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 60¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,625.52 · official $1,628.84 (match) · 1511 history records