trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Venezuela vs. Colombia end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Ecuador vs. Argentina end in a draw? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Eagles vs. Chiefs | Chiefs | 54¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Bills | 35¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Chargers vs. Raiders | Raiders | 38¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Dolphins vs. Colts | Dolphins | 36¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Spain beat Netherlands? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET | May 01 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? | Jan 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Jan 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Eagles vs. Chiefs | Sep 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Raiders | Sep 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Colombia win on 2025-09-09? | Sep 14 | $10 | +$18 | +178% |
| Will Venezuela vs. Colombia end in a draw? | Sep 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Ecuador vs. Argentina end in a draw? | Sep 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Argentina win on 2025-09-09? | Sep 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Raiders vs. Patriots | Sep 08 | $1 | +$1 | +100% |
| Buccaneers vs. Falcons | Sep 08 | $2 | +$4 | +194% |
| Dolphins vs. Colts | Sep 07 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit | Jun 24 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? | Apr 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | Apr 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Spain beat Netherlands? | Mar 20 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Mar 20 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Mar 20 | $2 | +$10 | +525% |
| Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-12? | Mar 20 | $20 | +$14 | +72% |
| Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | Mar 12 | $78 | $0 | -0% |
| Gaethje vs. Fiziev | Mar 10 | $20 | +$27 | +133% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-05? | Mar 06 | $10 | +$19 | +186% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | Mar 06 | $30 | +$26 | +85% |
| Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? | Mar 05 | $10 | +$10 | +96% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Barron" during Crypto Summit on Friday? | Mar 05 | $12 | −$2 | -19% |
| Ravens vs. Bills | Mar 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | Mar 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 05 | $22 | +$20 | +92% |
| Super Bowl LIX Winner | Feb 10 | $18 | +$14 | +75% |
| Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? | Jan 22 | $19 | +$4 | +20% |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Jan 19 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | +24.4% | +12.6% | 100% | 100% | +12.6% |
| all | 32 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 41% | 41% | -13.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.0% | 41% | -13.3% |
| 10% | -14.1% | 38% | -21.6% |
| 15% | -22.4% | 34% | -29.2% |
| 20% | -30.0% | 34% | -36.1% |