Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x298d…08ab world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$8
other 20% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 9% -7.8%
≤90d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 42% 8% -7.8%
all 36 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 6% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -8.0%
10% -19.8% 0% -16.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -24.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage455d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $80 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $41 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $32 +$6 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $1 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 21 $9 +$1 +7%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $5 $0 +6%
Will X buy TikTok? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 23 $1 $0 -16%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31? Mar 25 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $35 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $18 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $3.42 (match) · 101 history records