Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x2993…431f sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$762 (+31%) realized +$774 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$563
other 14% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +21.7% +10.1% 56% 52% +18.1%
≤30d 27 +21.7% +10.1% 56% 52% +18.1%
≤90d 27 +21.7% +10.1% 56% 52% +18.1%
all 27 +21.7% +10.1% 56% 52% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 52% +18.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.4% 52% +6.8%
15% -10.0% 44% -3.5%
20% -18.9% 33% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$24 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$774
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $236 −$6 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $229 −$17 -8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $177 −$3 -2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $133 −$7 -5%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 +$299 +295%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $106 +$88 +83%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $146 +$192 +131%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$56 +38%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $148 +$44 +30%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$54 +106%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $47 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $135 +$60 +45%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $46 +$21 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $66 +$43 +66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $69 +$23 +33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $26 +$43 +168%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$12 +58%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $61 −$38 -63%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$13 +104%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$16 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $207 41m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 75¢ $230 43m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $212 47m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $174 50m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $98 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $131 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 32¢ $127 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $133 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $177 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $236 2h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 90¢ $401 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $194 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $338 5h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 22¢ $102 6h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $106 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $207 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $146 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $47 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 9h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 97¢ $51 9h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 89¢ $47 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 76¢ $148 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $66 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $89 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $109 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.50 · official $187.50 (match) · 62 history records