Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2996…73de sports 786 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,159 (-7%) realized −$1,172 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%382W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$62
14 days−$82
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,193
other 16% −$289
crypto 1% +$102
economics 0% −$20
world 0% +$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 48% -12.4%
≤30d 184 -1.7% -11.0% 53% 48% -10.9%
≤90d 441 -7.4% -16.3% 50% 45% -18.0%
all 770 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 45% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 45% -17.1%
10% -25.6% 40% -25.0%
15% -32.8% 35% -32.2%
20% -39.4% 27% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,172
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses382 / 388
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions15
Markets (closed)770 / 786
History coverage152d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 770 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $32 $47 +$15 (+48%)
Czechia to win the second half? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 26¢ 35¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Czechia 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Czechia 5¢ 2¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-63%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $9 +$13 +139%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $13 +$7 +53%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$51 +152%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $15 +$7 +47%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +59%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$15 +89%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$6 +68%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$13 +83%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$19 +364%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +94%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$34 +165%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$8 +62%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$5 +66%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$3 -56%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY Czechia 3¢ $1 23m
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY Czechia 3¢ $1 23m
Czechia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $22 33m
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY Czechia 8¢ $5 1h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $3 1h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $4 1h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 6¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 83¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 4¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $5 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 4¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.23 · official $122.31 (match) · 2125 history records