Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x2996…90ec other 91 markets active 5d ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate60%53W / 35L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$1
other 23% +$4
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.0% -27.6% 75% 25% -56.9%
≤30d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 83% 17% -43.0%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 89% 22% -23.3%
all 88 +4.6% -5.4% 60% 26% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 26% -9.3%
10% -14.4% 17% -18.0%
15% -22.7% 15% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses53 / 35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage575d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+44%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 30 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +6%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Tariff" at The Villages on May 1? May 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 23 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 16 $2 +$2 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 08 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 30 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 30 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 24 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 24 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 18? Oct 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 22 $8 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Oct 08 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 27 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 18 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $2 $0 +19%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? Sep 06 $3 +$6 +203%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 26 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22? Aug 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? Aug 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25? Jul 31 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Jul 31 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 5d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 94¢ $2 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $1 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 48d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 68¢ $1 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 48d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 48d
Will Trump say "Tariff" at The Villages on May 1? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 48d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 103d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY Yes 41¢ $1 115d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $8 134d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $3 134d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 156d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 156d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $8 163d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $3 163d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 167d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 86¢ $9 167d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 98¢ $9 170d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 84¢ $9 170d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 91¢ $5 188d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 89¢ $9 188d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 86¢ $11 205d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 96¢ $10 206d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY No 72¢ $9 216d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY No 84¢ $8 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 184 history records