trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 15¢ | $12 | $12 | +$1 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $6 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Jaylen Brown Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 16 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 13 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Circle IPO in 2025? | Apr 13 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser | Apr 12 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump increase tariffs on China by Friday? | Apr 11 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 19 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| St. John's vs. DePaul | Mar 05 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 16 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 56% | 6% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.3% | 6% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 0% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 0% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 0% | -32.8% |