Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2999…831e other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$35
sports 25% −$19
culture 7% −$6
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage127d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $316 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $249 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $503 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $406 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $225 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $423 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $723 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $126 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $379 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $377 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 14h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 19h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 25h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 28h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 35h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 37h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 41h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1269 history records