Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x299c…d85e other 836 markets active 11h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,739 (+11%) realized +$9,819 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate95%769W / 39L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day71.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$649
14 days+$1,130
30 days+$7,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$7,573
politics 12% +$330
tech 10% +$507
finance 5% +$211
world 5% +$103
sports 1% +$40
economics 1% +$10
crypto 0% +$7
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +3.3% -6.5% 97% 12% -4.5%
≤30d 596 +6.5% -3.7% 95% 14% -1.4%
≤90d 808 +17.2% +6.1% 95% 16% -1.0%
all 808 +17.2% +6.1% 95% 16% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 16% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -4.1% 8% -10.5%
15% -13.4% 5% -19.1%
20% -21.9% 3% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.12 per $1 lost it wins $10.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,563
Realized+$9,819
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses769 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)808 / 836
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day71.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $146 $144 −$2 (-1%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $141 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? No 90¢ 74¢ $165 $135 −$30 (-18%)
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $129 $131 +$2 (+2%)
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $111 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Stupid" be in the headlines this week? No 90¢ 92¢ $95 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $95 $93 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 22? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $57 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B? No 80¢ 51¢ $64 $41 −$23 (-36%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $7.6B? No 96¢ 93¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon post "IPO" on X this week? Yes 80¢ 47¢ $33 $19 −$13 (-41%)
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No 70¢ 72¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 67¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Will "Innovation" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas Jun 20 $91 +$1 +1%
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 20 $88 +$1 +1%
Will "Hollywood" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 20 $96 +$1 +1%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $73 +$1 +1%
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Pod Jun 20 $107 +$1 +1%
Will "Miracle" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas Jun 20 $95 +$1 +1%
Will "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $117 +$1 +1%
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $169 +$2 +1%
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $45 +$11 +26%
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 20 $23 +$2 +9%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $114 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week? Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 18 $125 +$62 +50%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 18 $57 −$15 -27%
Will "Policy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 18 $66 +$1 +2%
Will "Fraud" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will "Hormuz" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 18 $71 +$3 +4%
Will "Spurs" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $148 +$3 +2%
Will "Riot" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 18 $150 +$3 +2%
Will "Knicks" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 18 $147 +$3 +2%
Will "Siri" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Will "Red State" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 17 $263 +$7 +3%
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $132 +$2 +1%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $148 +$1 +1%
Will "Cuba" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Will "Sydney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 17 $94 +$1 +1%
Will "Blue State" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan Jun 17 $263 +$7 +3%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $137 +$12 +9%
Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $91 +$5 +5%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $155 +$18 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 99¢ $117 11h
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 99¢ $38 11h
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 98¢ $15 11h
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 98¢ $19 11h
Will "Hollywood" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast BUY No 99¢ $96 11h
Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast BUY No 99¢ $69 11h
Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast BUY No 98¢ $18 11h
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY No 99¢ $98 11h
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Pod BUY No 99¢ $107 11h
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY No 99¢ $19 11h
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY No 98¢ $8 11h
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY No 98¢ $17 11h
Will "Miracle" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 99¢ $66 11h
Will "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas BUY No 99¢ $95 11h
Will "Miracle" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 98¢ $13 11h
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 99¢ $98 11h
Will "Innovation" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas BUY No 98¢ $16 11h
Will "Innovation" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas BUY No 99¢ $75 11h
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 11h
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 11h
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 96¢ $14 11h
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY Yes 90¢ $16 11h
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 94¢ $16 11h
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 92¢ $12 11h
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 90¢ $9 11h
Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 86¢ $12 11h
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 94¢ $16 11h
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 92¢ $12 11h
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 90¢ $9 11h
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 89¢ $54 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,562.51 · official $1,562.51 (match) · 3500 history records