Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29a1…5645
world · 240 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$340 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$421 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,753
Realized−$421
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses118 / 71
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions53
Markets (closed)189 / 240
Avg bet$55
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 53 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$13
14 days+$62
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $355 $364 +$9 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $307 $319 +$11 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 85¢ 97¢ $201 $232 +$30 (+15%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $115 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $56 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 77¢ 89¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $42 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $27 $38 +$11 (+42%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+17%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 51¢ 44¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? No 33¢ 22¢ $47 $32 −$15 (-32%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $19 $24 +$6 (+31%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 37¢ 28¢ $28 $21 −$7 (-26%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 55¢ 48¢ $16 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 34¢ 19¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 47¢ 42¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $37 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $121 +$23 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $7 +$10 +138%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $28 +$8 +28%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$8 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 +$14 +38%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $91 −$58 -64%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 06 $39 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $11 +$5 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 03 $63 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $8 +$7 +84%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $9 +$6 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $5 −$4 -71%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $26 +$1 +5%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? Jun 01 $53 +$15 +28%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64 −$48 -75%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +10%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $38 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $24 −$3 -12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $25 +$20 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $8 +$2 +27%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $179 +$34 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $77 +$10 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $9 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? May 29 $137 +$12 +9%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? May 29 $27 +$15 +57%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 +$18 +63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $48 −$15 -31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $59 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $8 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% −$318
sports 28% −$160
other 5% +$52
finance 3% +$12
politics 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $6 32m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $7 35m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 37m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $2 40m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $8 43m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $7 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $1 50m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $15 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $15 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 81¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 81¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 47¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $7 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 80¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 80¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $5 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $3 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $4 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 65¢ $7 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $7 2h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $7 2h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 33% -11.8%
≤30d 119 +28.2% +16.0% 61% 45% -8.5%
≤90d 189 +29.2% +16.9% 62% 48% -13.0%
all 189 +29.2% +16.9% 62% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.9% 48% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 32% -21.3%
15% -4.5% 22% -28.9%
20% -13.8% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,752.64 · official $1,750.75 (match) · 3500 history records