Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29a1…f51a crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%70W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$13
other 12% −$5
sports 7% +$10
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.7% -8.9% 65% 40% -8.3%
≤30d 130 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 40% -14.2%
≤90d 130 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 40% -14.2%
all 130 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 40% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 40% -14.2%
10% -21.0% 31% -22.4%
15% -28.7% 24% -29.9%
20% -35.7% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses70 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 312 history records