Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29a5…fe58
weather · 536 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$237 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$237 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,519
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses469 / 15
Open positions52
Markets (closed)484 / 536
History coverage13d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day278.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 52 History 484 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$24
14 days+$237
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? No 100¢ 98¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 97¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $100 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 +0.1% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 484 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 484 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 1% -8.7%
all 484 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover278.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 1% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 1% -17.4%
15% -23.6% 1% -25.4%
20% -31.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,519.41 · official $2,518.82 (match) · 3500 history records